The Odds of Europe siding with SA against the US

I don’t think that the ANC and its allies must depend too much on support from Europe for an anti-American rebellion in the G20.

There are four European countries in the G20, namely the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy.

Italy is governed by a right-wing coalition, led by one of the most popular Prime Ministers in recent times in the country, Giorgia Meloni. The country has been vocal in its criticism of, what they regard as, Israel’s human rights violations in Palestine. From that perspective, I presume, one could argue that they have pursued an “anti-American agenda.”

However, in terms of the geopolitical spectrum, the Italian government is pro-Western and pro-American. It is right wing, and will not surrender its alliance with the United States to support South Africa.

The governing collation seems to be safe in the seat, for now. The latest opinion polls in the country, conducted in October 2025, have shown that support for the main political parties included in the coalition is steadily growing.  Support for the three major political have grown by 5% since the 2022 general elections. According to current trend, the conservative ideology will retain power after the next general elections.

The popularity of Macron, the French President that was quoted repeatedly by the South African mainstream media and government social media accounts after the G20 leadership summit, has dropped to historic lows in his home country. It currently hovers somewhere between 11 and 13% (Politico).

Polling shows that either Jordan Bardella or Marine Le Pen, the leaders of the right-wing opposition in the country, have very good chances of winning the 2027 Presidential elections (Reuters).  The far-right Jordan Bardella’s popularity polls at 36%. The leftist Raphaël Glucksmann polls at 14,5%, and the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 12%. Gabriel Attal is a centralist, supported by 11% of possible voters. The leader of France’s equivalent of the Green Party, Marine Tondelier, polls at 6,5%. Bruno Retailleau, a right-winger, polls at 10%.

France is turning to the right, and there is very little room for maneuvering for leftist politicians with an anti-American geopolitical agenda. France faces extremely serious economic waves, and does not have the means to make an enemy of the United States of America.

Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom has also been persistently mentioned as a G20 partner for South Africa against the United States. Ideologically there may be merit in this assumption, because Starmer represents the Labour Party, which is a Socialist political party, with a generally “progressive” worldview. However, in practice, he has led this party to the worst popularity rating among UK voters since the end of the Second World War.

The Labour Party’s support is polled at 14%, and other parties that may potentially siding with its leftist worldviews, are polling as follow: The Greens, 18%; the Liberal Democrats, 11%; the Scottish National Party at 3% and Plaid Cymru at 1%.

However, the right has totally overtaken the left in opinion polls. The Conservatives stand at 20%, and Reform UK, a far-right, pro-Trump party, at 31%.

The German ambassador in South Africa has posted a tweet, following the G20 Leadership Summit, in which he has declared his country’s solidarity with South Africa, given the United State’s actions. However, it was also made clear that Germany will not boycott the G20 Summit in Maime because of it.

Yes, Germany has a liberal-leftist government, but Germany also a long-standing and very deeply-entrenched relationship with the United States since the Second World War and the subsequent Cold War, which makes it virtually impossible for the country to side openly with antagonists of Washington.

 My point is this: Europe, and the specifically the G20 member states from Europe, will not side with South Africa in its feud against the United States. They will not boycott or sanction the United States because of this feud. They will not, because political conditions in those countries, and geopolitical realities made it impossible for them to do so.

Europe need America to defend it against Russian aggression; in sopite of all the spat exchanged between the EU and the USA currently. They need the American economy to pay for NATO.

South Africa is a small country, with a declining economy and declining global shine, that finished up in the G20 because of the cloud of Nelson Mandela in the late 1990s and early 2000s. When natural interests are weighted up against ideological gestures, national interests will always win. Besides, much of South Africa’s moral shine has gone as the extent of the corruption, looting and mismanagement in the country have persistently started hitting the international headlines.  It is no match for the United States.

Do I support Donald Trump’s actions against South Africa? Well, actually, I am very worried about the implications therefore for all, and then specifically innocent, South Africans. But I am even angrier about the persistent, and ever worsening and hardening racial discrimination openly and without any apologies pledged in the country, of which I am a target and victim. That, and also, whether I like what Trump is doing or not, the facts on the ground, in terms of Europe’s response to it, remain realities. So, purely for the purposes of objective decision-making, don’t look to Europe to support South African in a large-scale boycotting of the G20 in the United States until Trump agrees to the demands of the Comrades.

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