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Risks and Analyses


Die ANC en Suid-Afrika se internasionale verhoudinge: Ideologie het getriomfeer
Die ANC se leiers weet, is bewus daarvan, dat die antagonisering van die VSA en ander Westerse lande daartoe kan aanleiding gee dat ekonomiese groei ondermyn kan word, en die land selfs vinnig kan verarm, veral as aktiewe sanksies sou volg. Hulle weet dit, en dit help nie eens om dit as ʼn argument aan te voer wanneer met hulle hieroor geargumenteer word nie. Hulle het dit reeds in hulle besluitneming verreken. Die Ideologie het gewen, en in die toekoms gaan die ANC openlik, e

Frans Minnaar
11 hours ago8 min read


Hervorming van die Verenigde Nasies: Die verskuilde agenda
Ek weet nie waar hierdie obsessie met die sogenaamde hervorming van duie Verenigde Nasies vandaan kom nie. In teorie kan ek wel verstaan dat die argument is dat die Verenigde Nasies saamgestel, of dan georganiseer, was na die beëindiging van die Tweede Wêreldoorlog, en dat dit nou uitgedien is, want die werklikhede in die wêreld het verander. Eintlik het die magsbalans binne die kring van dominante moondhede in die wêreld verskuif, eerder as tussen moondhede.

Frans Minnaar
11 hours ago11 min read


Israel, USA attack on Iran: My Viewpoint
Israel and the United States should have attacked the Iranian regime. But the objectives must have been much clearer and specific, focused on eliminating the major risks identified. Well, in my ignorant opinion, that is what should have happened. I am afraid that, what is currently unfolding, is a scenario of defeating a conventional fundamentalist regime, but replacing it with something, or somewhat that may actually be worse for Israel and the West in the long run.

Frans Minnaar
11 hours ago9 min read


The National Democratic Revolution
What exactly is the National Democratic Revolution (NDR)? This concept apparently stands central to the modern ANC’s policy agenda; yet, it is difficult to determine from literature how exactly to define it. It is almost strange how the concept is used in progressive circles in the country, without it being properly defined – as if there is an unquestioned understanding in the midst of the recipients of the message that makes further explanations unnecessary.

Frans Minnaar
Feb 259 min read


Regeringsbeleid en die implementering daarvan
Suid-Afrika se beleidsrigtings is vernietigend, want is deurlopend geskoei op onwerkbare, ideologiese aannames en teorieë wat nog nêrens in die wêreld geslaagd was nie, en meestal die werklikhede van die jare 1970s en 80s weerspieël, en nie die jaar 2026 nie.

Frans Minnaar
Feb 114 min read


Die ANC se buitelandse beleid: Ideologie in Aksie
Kyk, jy kan jou longe uitskreeu, en met duidelike bewyse uitwys dat die Kamerade se buitelandse beleid ere dubbele standaarde blootlê, maar dit is om soos met ʼn horende dowe te praat. Water van 'n eend se rug. Die Kaders sal doodeenvoudig vasberade, en sonder skaamte, volhou om te verkondig dat hulle beleid en optrede gebaseer is op onverbondenheid, die beskerming van menseregte wêreldwyd, en internasionale reg.

Frans Minnaar
Feb 45 min read


'n Ontleding van groei in die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie: 1961 tot 2024
Suid-Afrika se ekonomies egroei voor 1994 was beter en meer volgehou as na 1994. Dit is nie 'n ideologiese stelling nie, maar 'n feitlike een. Ekonomiese groei gedurende die tydperk 2009 tot 2024 was slegs 0,15% beter as gedurende die tydperk (1984 tot 1994) toe Suid-Afrika feitlik totaal afgesny was van die internasionale ekonomie, en onder geweldige druk as gevolg van interne - en eksterne militêre konflikte.

Frans Minnaar
Jan 1414 min read


Maduro, the US and International Law
So, the US has breached international law by kidnapping Maduro. But who cares? Let me tell you, not the ANC. The ANC’s standard is their Cold War loyalties. Anyway, who actually cares about “international law” anymore? What matters, is ideology, not law.
Just considers the hypocritical South African government. It condemns the United States government for capturing Maduro, but is silent about Russia’s invasion of a sovereign state. How many people has dies during the US’s a

Frans Minnaar
Jan 93 min read


Is a coup d'etat in the making?
I don’t think a coup d’état is imminent in South Africa (but I may be wrong, who knows). However, something is cooking, boiling just below the surface.
I do think that there is open revolt against civilian oversight in the military forces of the country. I also think the drivers of this revolt are ideology and the sense of a lost victory.

Frans Minnaar
Jan 87 min read


The United States National Security Strategy & Global Power Relations
The US National Security Strategy, published in November 2025, set out its geopolitical aims and strategies. It is in line with Trump’s expressed worldviews, made clear on numerous occasions during the last decade of his presence in United States politics. Under his leadership, the United States will act accordingly, regardless of whether he and his administration is blamed of breaking international law, or regardless of how reprehensible many may find it.

Frans Minnaar
Jan 515 min read


Wages vs GDP Growth
When the GDP growth figures for the United States in respect of the 3rd quarter of 2025 were published, a big issue was made by Republicans about the success of Trump’s economic policies, including his tariff initiatives. This growth rates were 4,3%; far exceeding even the most optimistic forecasts.
The counter-response from the Left, and specifically Europe, was that the real state of an economy must be measured not in terms of GDP growth, but in terms of wage growth.

Frans Minnaar
Jan 43 min read


The ANC's Priorities: My Response
The ANC's lekgotla, held over the weekend, outlined specific tasks in the six priority areas identified by the ANC’s NGC:
• Firstly, to fix local government and improve basic services
• Secondly, to speed up economic transformation and to engender inclusive growth and job creation
• Thirdly, to wage war on crime and corruption and tackle GBVF as a National Disaster
• Fourthly, to build a South Africa that belongs to all through the National Dialogue...

Frans Minnaar
Dec 10, 20252 min read


The ANC's 5th National General Council
The ANC cadres are not the excellent creators they believe themselves to be; they are destroyers. They contaminate everything they touch. They have turned South Africa into a mafia state, a failed state. And they are still at it.

Frans Minnaar
Dec 10, 20254 min read


The Odds of Europe siding with SA against the US
I don’t think that the ANC and its allies must depend too much on support from Europe for an anti-American rebellion in the G20. Don’t look to Europe to support South African in a large-scale boycotting of the G20 in the United States until Trump agrees to the demands of the Comrades.

Frans Minnaar
Dec 7, 20254 min read


No, SA cannot survive US sanctions unscaled
It is very dangerous to say "We don't need the United States"; "if they want to, let them sanction us."
Let's look at three examples of countries that have been actively sanctioned by the USA in the post-WW2 history.

Frans Minnaar
Dec 7, 20252 min read


Public Service Wage Bill
The South African government’s staff establishment consist of sixteen salary levels, or grades. The South African public sector is captured in the destructive results of political ideology, nepotism, cadre deployment and corruption. The results are clearly visible, including in the numbers.

Frans Minnaar
Dec 6, 20255 min read


The National Democratic Revolution and its Freedom Charter roots
The National Democratic Revolution means transforming the South African economy and society into a communist one. However, this is a special kind of communism, in which race plays an important role. The National Democratic Revolution is here to stay. It is linked to the Freedom Charter and it is an enormous and deadly risk to South Africa.

Frans Minnaar
Nov 19, 20254 min read


The Container Port Performance Index
The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) provides a globally consistent and comparable assessment of container port performance. It is based on empirical measurements of vessel time in port, focusing on how efficiently container ports serve ships from the perspective of shipping lines and their customers. It is grounded in objective data and a robust two-pronged methodology.

Frans Minnaar
Oct 1, 20255 min read


Is South Africa heading to the Zimbabwe scenario?
Is South Africa heading to the Zimbabwe scenario? Probably. There are very few differences between the ANC and ZAPU PF. Both are, in essence, liberation movements, and not government.

Frans Minnaar
Sep 5, 20255 min read
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