Politics

I have done an analysis of trends in the results of by-elections conducted from the time of the 2021 Local Government elections to the end of February 2026. I have used two datasets obtained from the website of the Independent Electoral Commission, namely:

-- A “Winners” report; that is, an analysis of trends in wards, focusing on the margins of the winning political parties; distinguishing between the outcomes during the 2021 Local Government elections in wards where by-elections were since conducted, versus the results of the said by-elections.

-- A “Votes” report; that is, an analysis of trends in the number of votes casted on political parties participating in the different by-elections since the 2021 local government elections.

Let’s start with the number of by-elections won by each of the major political groupings in SA, over the period 2021 until February 2026.

In the year 2022, the ANC won 58 wards in by-elections, the DA 17, the EFF 3, and the IFP 10. In 2023, the ANC won 50 wards, the DA 25, the EFF 5, the PA 4, the IFP 15 and others 3. In 2024, the ANC won 36 by-elections, the DA 41, the MKP 3, the EFF 1, the PA 8, the IFP 2 and Other 2. In 2025, the ANC won 47 wards in by-elections, the DA 17, the MKP 4, the EFF 1, the PA 8, the IFP 2 and Others 2.

What does this tell us, in terms of trends?

The ANC was in sharp decline over the period 2022 to 2024, but I am intrigued by the data that show the party coming a comeback in the year 2025, winning more than fifty percent country-wide in wards contested.

The DA showed remarkable growth over the period 2022 to 2024, but in 2025 it only managed to win approximately 21% of contested wards. This may be as a result of the specific areas, and types, of elections the party has been part take in. However, in 2025, more than 80 by-elections were conducted, suggesting a wide-spread sample. I think the reasons were rather the impact of the PA on the DA’s voter-base in the Western Cape, and the inability of the DA to translate poll results showing a stronger standing of the party among it non-traditional voters into actual performance at the polls.

The appearance of the uMkhonto weSizwe Party on the political scene damaged both the ANC, as well as the EFF severely. However, I want to suggest that the EFF has shown a trend of recovery since.

Another party that has shown a constant upwards movement, was the PA, and it also seems that this party is still maintaining its growth pattern. This is a direct and severe threat to the ANC, but especially the DA.

If one analyses the by-election results from the different Provinces, it seems that the DA remains the driving force in the Western Cape. However, the ANC has a resilience in the Province that I personally regard as surprising. In spite of all the signs of apparent decline, the party was still able to win 20 by-elections In the Province over the period assessed.  However, the DA’s main competition in this province, is without a shadow of a doubt the PA. Although this party has won 17 by-elections in the province, as appose to the 35 of the DA, it is worth noting that almost all those gains were post-2024. That implies momentum.

The ANC dominated by-election results in the Free State, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, the Eastern Cape, the North West, and also, mostly, in the Northern Cape. However, Gauteng the DA has won 36 by-election, as appose to the 26 of the ANC. The performance of the MKP in this province must also be a concern to the ANC.

The MKP is doing reasonably well in KwaZulu-Natal, but not nearly as well as the surprising results of the 2024 National and Provincial elections may have suggested. Over the period 2021 to February 2026, the MKP has won 4 by-elections in the Province. However, the ANC won 55 and the IFP 45.

The ANC performed worse in 46 by-elections at the time of these elections, compared with the party’s performance in those wards during the 2021 local government elections. The DA performed better in a net gain of 9 wards, the EFF performed better in 6, the PA in 16 and the IFP in 23. Other parties and independents performed worse in 13 wards.

The ANC collected 357 498 votes in by-elections over the period starting with the 2021 local government elections, and ending February 2026. The DA received 241 314 votes over the same period, the MKP 39 533, the EFF 88 423, the PA 57 518, the IFP 83 571, the Freedom Front Plus 13 503 and Other, including independents, 82 408. This force me to the conclusion that, in spite of everything that has been said and done, the ANC still enjoys majority support in the country.

It does appear, from the analysis that I have done, that the DA’s support in urban areas in the country has surpassed that of the ANC. This may be a telling factor in the coming local government elections. However, the ANC’s support in rural areas is overwhelming, although in selective provinces, such as KwaZulu-Natal, it is increasingly shared with the MKP and the return of support for the IFP, and, in the Western Cape, and to some extent the Northern Cape, with the PA.

If an accumulative perspective is put on the results of by-elections, over the period assessed, it is clear that the ANC has taken the lead, in terms of the number of voters received, from the first such elections after the 2021 general election, and has maintained that trend. But is also worth noting, is that the DA has been catching up with the ANC, and then especially in the year 2024, but then support for the party has flattened out, the curve as reversed.

My conclusions is that the DA will probably get more votes in all urban areas of the country collectively during the coming local government elections, but the party that will overall still gets the majority, will be the ANC. I am of the opinion that the DA has a serious problem with the PA in the Western Cape, and with the loss of support in Afrikaans speaking White voters in selective urban areas, with specific reference to Tshwane.

I don’t think the MKP will be a major factor in the elections. Rather than gaining, it seems that support for the party has deteriorated since the May 2024 election. However, I do think that the EFF has recover lost support, except, perhaps in KwaZulu-Natal. I think the IFP will be a real factor in this province; just as the PA probably will be in especially the rural areas of the Western Cape.

The complete dataset, containing detailed reports and graphs reflecting my analysis of the results of municipal by-elections of the period May 2021 to the end of February 2026, can be download by website subscribers from the File Share page on my website, www.fransminnaar.com.