Is the "suspended" Ideological fight now on again?

What’s going on with Ramaphosa and Donald Trump’s behaviour towards South Africa? Why is the delegation Ramaphosa has promises to send to the United States to “provide accurate information” about the expropriation act and race laws of the country not getting off the ground?

OK, the South African government is generally slow to respond to anything (except with their racial laws). Nevertheless, even considering this standard, Ramahosa’s delay is strange.

It could be that the South African diplomates in Washington find it difficult to get access to the Trump Administration, and therefore to set up a meeting.

However, it may that that there is something else going on here.

On 20 February 2025, the Department of Land Reform and Rural Development gave a presentation to the relevant portfolio committee in Parliament about a proposed Equitable Access to Land bill. This bill will, among others, allows for the redistribution of land according to the demographics of the country’s population; and then specifically, according to my understanding, the racial composition thereof.

What is also notable, is the time frames mentioned for the bill. The intension is that it must be submitted to Parliament in October 2025. If approved, it will then only be for the President to sign it to became law.

There is a possibility that this bill, and the Expropriation Act must be read in conjunction; basically that the latter will provides the legal instrument for government to grab land from White South Africans and transfer it to Black South Africans, in terms of the requirements of the proposed Equitable Access to Land Bill.

It is also possible that the United States, with its refined intelligence capacity, is aware of this. The United States has an excellent intelligence gathering capacity. I remember very well that, just prior to Russia invading the Ukraine, the US has warned that it will happen. Very few, not even the Ukraine itself (and neither me) really believed it. It happened.  

It is possible that Ramaphosa simply does not regard it worthwhile to spend too much time and energy on trying to explain something to the United States’ President that he knows is coming. The point is this: Yes, currently there has not been wide-spread land grabs in terms of the Expropriation Act, but it is coming, as soon as the legislative framework for it has been finalised.

In so-called “progressive” political circles in the country, and then specifically those that can be categorised as “former liberation movements” (and its offspring, such as the EFF and MKP), there is a hatred for Western countries, of which the United States is regarded as the main devil.

Is Ramaphosa deliberately picking a fight with the United States?

I do not believe that the ANC leaders are specifically looking for sanctions; not because it has the best interest of the country at heart, but simply because it will severely negatively impacting on them personally, and their wealth. They have been the recipients of great wealth transferred for goodwill after the 1994 Constitutional transition, or gained from tenderprenurial activities, specifically through BBBEE transactions. Economic sanctions will hurt them; especially targeted sanctions. Ramaphosa and his brother-in-law. Patrice Mosthepe, are among those that are benefitting most, and have the most to lose should sanctions be instituted against ANC leaders.

However, I do think that, in these circles, there have been a long-standing yearning to “stick it to America.”

There is certainly a possibility that sentiment towards Iran, and (on the opposite side of the ideological coin) Israel, is playing a role - and so is the possibility that Iran may assists the ANC to pay its bills, in return for SA taking the lead in creating ant-Israel legal action and general sentiment world-wide. There is that.

But, the ANC is not a rational decision-making body. They knew that the extreme levels of corruption and nepotism it has practiced over the last 30 years has caught up with them, and that it is causing them votes – and therefore endanger the pillars of their powers and wealth. Yet, they are incapable of letting go of it.

Also, they know that the emotional attachment to Socialism, Transformation and the National Democratic Revolution are the cause of a lot of the decline in the country. Yet, in spite of it, they have double down on these ideologies.

I am sure that the ideological fundamentalism in the ANC is underestimated.

Maybe the argument that the antagonism resulting from US sanctions against ANC leaders will renew enthusiasm for the party among South Africans has merit. This will confirm the sentiments expressed by both Zuma and Ramaphosa, that the ANC is more important in their thinking and decisions than the country.

Nevertheless, I think Ramaphosa’s behaviour in the US matter is primarily driven by ideology – and, with it, the associated emotions of anger. Perhabs global opolitics, and specifically the Israel, - Iran - and Palestine conflict is playing a role, but it is not the ultimate determinant.

Last month, for the first time since Russia has invaded the Ukraine, South Africa has voted with the latter, against Russia, in the United Nations. Is it possible that this action was triggered by the fact that the United States voted with Russia? I think it may be.

On 25 February 2025, Ramaphosa published an article, together with the Malaysian Prime Minister and the President of Colombia, in the influential journal Foreign Affairs. In this article, the authors directly attacked the United States, and specifically Trump, about its role in the Israel-Palestine conflict. The leaders made it clear that, if given the chance, they will arrest the Israeli Prime Minister to hand him over for prosecution by the International Criminal Court. They equalised Trump’s behaviour with those of the Apartheid government and colonialism. They also stated it clearly that their countries will not allow vessels with weapons for Israel to anchor in their ports.

Surely Ramaphosa must have known that Trump will not take kindly to such an article. The question is: Was it a deliberate provocation? I think so.

I think that, for Ramaphosa and the leadership of the ANC, the fight paused by the 1994 transition in South Africa, and the international adoration that they enjoyed for so long afterwards, including from Western countries, is on. And this fight is primarily ideological. I think that, in the world of the 1994 Leadership Contingent, the wisdom belongs to them, and nobody dares to criticise or oppose them. It is an extension of the "Mandela-phenomenon"; the almost three decades after 1994, when the adoration for leaders of the ANC was immense and worldwide – and that specifically in the Western world. Specifically in the Western world, because, in these countries, it was regarded as “making good the evils of colonialism”. When Trump dared to directly confront these leaders, and, what makes it worse, specifically fort racism, I believe the anger and resentment were experience deeply. In a sense, there is a believe that fighting Trump is equal to fighting New Colonialism.

In South Africa itself, the sudden “aggression” with transformation, including the sharpening of BBBEE, Employment Equity legislation, land reform and the “fundamentalisation” of the national debate in the country, also point is this direction.

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