I don’t think a coup d’état is imminent in South Africa (but I may be wrong, who knows). However, something is cooking, boiling just below the surface. I do think that there is open revolt against civilian oversight in the military forces of the country. I also think the drivers of this revolt are ideology and the sense of a lost victory.

The US National Security Strategy, published in November 2025, set out its geopolitical aims and strategies. It is in line with Trump’s expressed worldviews, made clear on numerous occasions during the last decade of his presence in United States politics. Under his leadership, the United States will act accordingly, regardless of whether he and his administration is blamed of breaking international law, or regardless of how reprehensible many may find it.