Floyd Shivambu, and the icons of South African politics

06 September 2025, Floyd Shivambu has officially and formally announced the political movement called African Mayibuye Movement, preceded by the Mayibuye Consultation Process.  

OK, so hands up from all who have every believed that the political party will NOT follow on the process? I don’t really know what the meaning was with the so-called “process”; perhaps it was meant as a kind of “marketing campaign”, perhaps it was an attempt to be different from the other left-wing splinter-groups that have spring up like mushrooms in South African politics. Perhaps it was a mixture of the two motivations.

Actually, while listening to the rhetoric screaming through the microphone during the grandiose establishment event (or announcement) my first reaction was: Same old, same old; I’ve seen the same thing, and heard the same sentiments, just in different phrases, and pronounced by different people, numerous times before. You know, addressing the “comrades” (just like the ANC, and just translated into “fighters” by Julius Malema and into “commanders” by Zuma); the same symbols of revolution and war in the emblem; the same references to the ultimate enemy, which seems to be White people (called “colonial legacy” and “persistent inequality” and “land theft”). Same old, same old: Radical transformation, NOW (some rhetorical deviation from the EFF’s theme of “economic transformation in our life-time”; the same commitment to political and economic theories that have over-and-over again proven to have failed where – and whenever it has been practised, such as socialism and communism – and with its roots firmly casted in a time and space that have passed fifty years ago (and even then it has proven to be achieved only one thing: Shared poverty and misery).

What I actually cannot understand, is “what on earth makes Floyd Shivambu thanks that he can sell the same old ideas to voters that already have the ANC, Jacob Zuma and Julius Malema promising the same thing”? I don’t think he can; at best, he will, maybe, be able to win one, or perhaps two, representatives to the National Assembly in the next general election. Similarly to other splinter parties formed in this manner, like Rise Mzansi, Bosa and Good, there maybe just enough disgruntled former members of the EFF, MK Party and perhaps the ANC, to secure Shivambu a Parliamentary seat. Then, perhaps, I might be wrong, and the party (sorry, the movement) may attract more supporters than expected. Who knows?

I do think that the “movement” was launched at the wrong time; basically, not close enough to a general election for it to be fresh in the minds of voters, and “ride the tide of expectation and exposure”. For municipal elections, such a strategy will not work, because the scope of diverse attention, considering cities, towns and wards all over the country, is simply too wide.

Shivambu will probably never become President of anything, except his own “movement.” However, he may become a Minister under the Presidency of Malema. Malema will probably ever again trust him enough to deputize him. Access to power is a strong motivator for someone to shred most of their pride and sue for peace, accepting a position of inferiority. Besides, you will only be inferior to the president for life, the all-powerful, all-wise, indispensable king; millions will be inferior to you. Who knows?

Here's the problem with all of this: The rise of political parties to the left of the spectrum is a manifestation of a bigger issue in the South African political and constitutional culture. Actually, I don’t know whether “spectrum” is the correct term here, because South African politics are conducted far on the left. However, that is not the problem; the problem is that, in the South African constitutional culture, access to the levers of power, run straight through the state. It is not a communist state, but even economic opportunities, and the chance of getting (filthy) rich, runs through the state.

In order to get government contracts, that is, to succeed as a tenderpreneur, you’ll have to have access to the mechanisms of state that award tenders and job assignments. If you are not in favour with the politically connected, you will be excluded from benefitting.

As an established business, you must comply with BBBEE requirements, and then specifically level 1 contribution status. So, BBBEE compliant “business persons” establish fly-by-nights to compete for a specific lucrative tender. Winning the tender, legitimised by your compliance status. That’s all that is required; being able to actually do the work, is a secondary consideration – if an issue at all. But here’s the thing: Even that is not enough to “make it” as a business person in this model: There are too many “Level 1” compliant fly-by-night; so that ones “making it” are those with access to the politically connected.

Adding economic value is not a consideration in the South African economic model; accessing the benefits of “the current available fat” is everything. This “fat” must be collected from all available sources. Initially the emphasis was on the monopolization of opportunities in the state (including municipalities). But the available wealth available from that source has been utterly exhausted and already monopolized. So, a new source had to be found.

So, the focus shifted to the private sector; a largely untapped source of assets for those who monopolise the instruments of the state to get access to, and internally distribute wealth. BBBEE laws were amended to extend its reach to the private sector; and so were secondary “transformation” legislation, such as employment equity and preferential procurement. We are at the start of the transfer of the public sector’s model of “transformation” to the private sector. This will bankrupt the private sector, like it did the public sector. It will lead to utter collapse in the private sector, like it did in the public sector. But it will place the riches of the private sector at the disposal of those controlling the state. That’s what matters in the South African constitution culture. In order to “make it” in life, you must access state power.

Now the question is this: If resentment and ambition has led you make a huge mistake (which is to trust a wily old fox in politics, like Jacob Zuma, and betrays another, who actually have a realistic chance of ultimately winning state power, like Julius Malema), and everyone has kick you out of the corridors of powers, what do you do know? You’re out in the cold. No access to state power; no access to the centre of wealth and power.

Mmusi Maimane started his own “civil rights” entity, which quickly became a political party, the so-called Bosa (because he believed that he was, and probably is, a wise, moderate, extremely popular figure among South African voters, who simply has to turn up to turn the country’s politics on its head. He was wrong).

Herman Mashaba joined the DA during the times when Helen Zille was on her mission of transferring the leadership of the party from White to Black leaders, basically regardless of whom they were, as long as they vaguely sympathise with her version of “liberal.” But then he encountered unexpected resistance to his interpretation of the race dynamics in the country from within the DA (and, perhaps, also perceptions of “inadequate” performance of mayor in the party). Zille never bothered to check what Mashaba actually believes about race politics, and he never bother to explains. Both were driven by ambition and enormous egos. Mashaba thought he could transfer his success in business to politics; that he was unstoppable. He was wrong. Thing is that Shivambu is not a self-made billionaire, and will miss the access to comfort and wealth, without access to state privilege.

Malema thought he was so popular in the ANC, and among the masses, that he could step away from the ANC, and would become President within the scope of a decade. He was wrong, but he actually was the one least wrong, because he indeed enjoyed enormous support inside and outside the ANC. Thing is just that he utterly underestimated the impact of institutional reputation in politics; that is, in the mind of the majority of South African voters, the ANC was “the natural” choice to vote for. It wasn’t that they did not like Malema – they did, but he should have been in the ANC to make it to the top. Now he must crawl his way back into the ANC – at a time when this reputational value of the party is collapsing. Thing is that Malema, because of his popularity and legitimacy in the ANC, and among the masses, does have considerable access to the instruments of power and privilege in the country. Shivambu will misses this association.

Zuma believed that he and has family has a birth-right to monopolise state power in South Africa, and to distribute the spoils of ruling to whoever he sees fit (exactly what he did during his reign as President). He was firmly committed to cling to state power, in spite of constitutional rules and whatever. However, Zuma underestimated the power of succession rules in the ANC (everyone must get a chance “to eat”, and when you had your chance, you must step aside, and allow another to get his – or her chance). Like Mbeki, this forced him out of the ANC. However, he has no intention of going silently into the night, and fought back bitterly; completely under the firm believe that the support of the masses was not necessarily for the ANC, first and foremost, but for him personally. He was wrong (well, probably wrong for 75% of the country’s population, and being right with only 25% or less). Zuma has nevertheless retained considerable access to the levers of power and privilege in the South African constitutional culture; because of the cult status surrounding his participation in the struggle, his position as former president of the ANC and country, and his popularity in especially KwaZulu-Natal). Shivambu will never be able to match that, because he has a legacy deficit.

Shivambu believes that he is this brilliant intellectual revolutionary and organiser; the brain behind both the EFF and the MKP. He probably believes that he will be able to “out-skilled” (on technical and intellectual levels) the ANC, Zuma and Malema. His definitely wrong. He has a long road ahead of him in the cold, devoid of access to state power. For now, he has lost the battle playing itself out in the South African constitutional culture.  

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