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No, SA cannot survive US sanctions unscaled

It is very dangerous to say "We don't need the United States"; "if they want to, let them sanction us."

Let's look at three examples of countries that have been actively sanctioned by the USA in the post-WW2 history.

Let's start with the SA's government darling: Cuba.

America has sanctioned Cuba since the 1960s (the Cuba missile crisis). The official salaries for professionals (doctors, professors, etc.) = 6,506 pesos (remember, this is a glorious Communist state; there is no "average income", only salaries). This is equal to US14,46 per month. For cleaners, gardeners, etc., the average salary is 2,500 pesos ($6,22 pesos per month). A cartoon of 30 eggs cost 2,800 pesos and a kilo of beans (the staple food), 650 pesos.

And, o, there's our mutual friend against the Big Bad Imperialist America: Iran.

America has sanctioned Iran since the Islamic Revolution, in the 1970s.

Iran's bank system has collapsed; it is, for all practical purposes, operating as a cash-based economy. They seldom pay for exports in money (because they don't have the currency), and pay for imports through oil or weapons (to Russia).

Before the Islamic Revolution, the annual economic growth rate (1960-19179) was 9,1%. Since then, it has been 1,9% per annum. Nominal GDP is $404,63 (for a country of between 90 and 92 million people). Income per capita is $5,700 per annum. The currency exchange rate between the USD and the Iranian Rial is 1: 42,112-50. You need 2,487 Rials to buy 1 Rand.

Then there's Venezuela. Prior to the Hugo Chávez Socialist regime came to power, this was the wealthiest countries in South America. It has enormous oil reserves. But the regime is so corrupt and competent (sound familiar?) it cannot be properly extracted. And America is not buying (AGOA, right?). The Venezuela currency is the Bolivar (eish, everything were renamed after some socialist revolutionary - again, sounds familiar, hey?), and it currently trades at an exchange rate of of US$1 to 257-606 Bolivar. The GDP is $102-105 billion per year, which implies $4,000 to 5,000 per year (or, in PPP terms, $8,000 [even in SA, it is, in PPP terms, 15,000 dollars per year]). Inflation is at 190% and worsening, and GDP growth only at 4% per annum, but fluctuating severely.

Then there's Zimbabwe (and others), which I will not go into. Russia has survived for three or four years, since the invasion of the Ukraine, but are now on the brink of economic disaster. Fact remains: In the medium term, there is not a single example of a country that has been sanctioned by the USA since the Second World War that has actually managed to survive and thrive. South Africa, with its economy utterly dependent on foreign support and exports, will definitely not. The dreams of China, Iran, Russia and India rescuing the country, and replacing the US, are figments of Ideological Imagination. China is is relatively young thriving economy, and invest its gains back into its own economy. Russia is on the brink of collapse from the sanctions it itself is facing. Europe, South Korea and Japan are all dependent on, and (when push come to shove) loyal to the United States. Like Iran, Venezuela and Cuba, South Africa will have to learn to survive on Ideology alone.


Image source: 123RF

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